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Reckon without
Unexpected Outcome
Use 'reckon without' when an unforeseen event affects your plans, hinting at a lack of preparation. 
Idiomatic Usage
This phrase is idiomatic; it expresses a thought in a fixed, non-literal way, unique to native speakers. 
Planning Pitfalls
'Reckon without' is often used when commenting on an oversight that leads to complications in one's plans. 